Saturday’s game at Humphrey Coliseum has the No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-1, 2-0 SEC) taking on the No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats (12-3, 1-1 SEC) at 8:30 PM (on January 11). Our computer prediction projects a 80-77 win for Mississippi State, who is a slight favorite based on our model.

Based on our computer prediction, Kentucky is projected to cover the spread (4.5) against Mississippi State. The two teams are projected to come in below the 161.5 total.

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Starkville, Mississippi
• Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
• Line: Mississippi State -4.5
• Point total: 161.5
• Moneyline (to win): Mississippi State -184, Kentucky +152

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Mississippi State 80, Kentucky 77

Spread & Total Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

• Pick ATS: Kentucky (+4.5)
• Pick OU: Under (161.5)

Mississippi State has a 9-6-0 record against the spread this season compared to Kentucky, who is 7-8-0 ATS. In terms of going over the point total, games involving the Bulldogs are 7-8-0 and the Wildcats are 8-7-0. The teams combine to score 172.3 points per game, 10.8 more points than this matchup’s total. Over the last 10 games, Mississippi State is 6-4 against the spread and 9-1 overall while Kentucky has gone 3-7 against the spread and 7-3 overall.

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Mississippi State Performance Insights

• The Bulldogs have a +254 scoring differential, topping opponents by 17 points per game. They’re putting up 83.5 points per game to rank 28th in college basketball and are giving up 66.5 per contest to rank 61st in college basketball.
• Mississippi State records 37.1 rebounds per game (23rd in college basketball) while allowing 31.2 per contest to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 5.9 boards per game.
• Mississippi State hits 1.4 more threes per contest than the opposition, 8.7 (99th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 7.3.
• The Bulldogs’ 105.1 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 30th in college basketball, and the 83.8 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 34th in college basketball.
• Mississippi State has won the turnover battle on average this season, committing 9.2 per game (15th in college basketball play) while forcing 13.9 (49th in college basketball).

Kentucky Performance Insights

• The Wildcats have a +223 scoring differential, topping opponents by 14.9 points per game. They’re putting up 88.8 points per game, third in college basketball, and are allowing 73.9 per contest to rank 249th in college basketball.
• The 36.7 rebounds per game Kentucky accumulates rank 26th in the nation, 3.6 more than the 33.1 its opponents grab.
• Kentucky makes 9.8 three-pointers per game (40th in college basketball), 2.3 more than its opponents. It shoots 35.7% from beyond the arc (89th in college basketball), and its opponents are shooting 28.1%.
• Kentucky has committed 1.7 fewer turnovers than its opponents, averaging nine (seventh in college basketball) while forcing 10.7 (282nd in college basketball).

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