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Boyle reaches 30K population mark

Boyle County’s population has grown by 5.58 percent since 2010, according to recently released population estimates for 2016 from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the six counties surrounding Boyle, three have lost population since 2010, while a fourth grew by less than 1 percent.

The Census’ 2016 population estimates were released in late March. The Census provides the estimates annually in between official Census years. The next official Census will be in 2020.

The estimates are reached by using birth and death statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics. Births are added to the 2010 Census numbers and deaths are subtracted. Then, net migration is added or subtracted. Migration is calculated using data from IRS tax exemptions, changes in Medicare enrollment and additional Census data called “group quarters.”

Boyle’s estimated population as of July 1, 2016, was 30,018 — the first time the county has topped 30,000. That’s a 0.7-percent increase over the estimated 2015 population of 29,807; and it’s a total 5.58-percent increase over Boyle County’s 2010 Census population of 28,432.

Boyle’s population grew steadily from 2010 to 2012, adding a couple hundred people every year. In 2013, the estimated population grew by more than 600 people. Then in 2014, the population grew by 188. The Census Bureau estimates the population actually shrank by two people in 2015, before jumping back up by 211 in 2016 to crest 30,000.

In all, Boyle is estimated to have 1,586 more people now than it did in 2010.

Washington County saw the biggest percentage growth among counties touching Boyle at 4.03 percent since the 2010 Census. The population estimates show Washington growing from 11,717 in 2010 to 12,189 in 2016 — a change of 472 people.

Marion County lost the most people in counties touching Boyle. Its population dropped by 3.1 percent from 19,820 in 2010 to an estimated 19,205 in 2016.

Lincoln and Casey counties also lost population, according to the estimates. Lincoln fell from 24,742 in 2010 to 24,372 in 2016 — a loss of 370 people or 1.5 percent. Casey dropped from 15,955 in 2010 to an estimated 15,815 in 2016 — a loss of 140 people or 0.88 percent.

Garrard County’s population grew by 2.25 percent, from 16,912 in 2010 to an estimated 17,292 in 2016 — an addition of 380 people.

Population loss in the counties surrounding Boyle is anticipated to be an issue in future years, according to data compiled by RKG and Associates, the consulting company heading up creation of a strategic economic development plan for Boyle County.

Surrounding counties are projected to have negligible growth through 2020 and negative population growth from 2020 to 2030 and from 2030 to 2040, according to documents from RKG. Boyle County is projected to see continued but diminishing rates of population growth through 2040.

“In the last several years, since 2000, there’s been a steady population growth in Boyle County, which was a little bit greater between 2010 and 2016,” RKG consultant Laura Callaghan told local economic development officials in December. “But by comparison, recent growth has been at a lower level in the surrounding market.”

“This ultimately has the potential to really impact the economy of Boyle County because Boyle County is an importer of jobs,” Callaghan said. “The fact that the population of the counties surrounding Boyle is declining — there will be an impact on the labor force.”

SO YOU KNOW

Boyle County surpassing the 30,000 population mark has potential future implications for how county and city occupational license fees are collected from workers’ paychecks. Watch for a story on this in a future issue of The Advocate-Messenger.